Fossil fuels represent about half of the global primary energy demand mix, a proportion that has not changed over the last 20 years. It is estimated that primary energy demand over the next 25 years will increase by about 140%. Constraints in the traditional sources of oil and gas, the high costs and risks associated with new production areas and the difficulties of putting in place the infrastructures to connect the production areas to the locations of demand are likely to result in strong price volatility around a high mean price level. This in turn raises important policy issues at the global and national levels.

This Discussion Paper, written by Pierre Lortie for the 2011 Biennial Canadian Ditchley Foundation Conference, also includes the following points:

•      The Demand Outlook for Oil and Gas
•      The Supply Outlook for Oil and Gas
•      Energy Transportation Infrastructure
•      The Socio‐Economic Context

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